What you need to know about the BTC price chart here and now.
The month is over and April closed far from perfect.
But first, I suggest zooming out and reminding yourself that on high timeframes bitcoin is still in an “endless bull market”: an upward channel with consecutive higher highs and higher lows. However, each break of the middle of the channel (the dotted line) in the past has sent the price to its upper or lower boundary, until the last breakout sent the price lower. Since then, the market has been trading more horizontally, waiting for a clearer direction.
The April candlestick (April is historically considered a “bullish” month) closed at almost a monthly low: the bulls could hardly defend or win back anything by the end of the month. In addition, it completely absorbed the movement of the rising candles of February and March.
However, in my opinion, it should be treated with a certain distrust: the monthly chart is difficult to use for the constructive trading and the situation takes forever to develop. However, we must admit that the April candlestick looks unfavorable.
The weekly chart expresses market uncertainty by being at support levels. Key support of $34.4-37.7k is still held and is an important area. The closest key resistance, a close above which could be decisive, is at $39.6k.
For today, bitcoin reacted with a bounce to the lower boundary of the rising channel. Regardless of the pattern, that sloping support is now a key level. If it holds, it will mean another bigger low and the price will move towards the upper boundary of the channel. If not, price will go looking for new lows.
This is exactly the area where traders using uptrend support look for buying options.
It is hard for me to seriously consider bearish scenarios when bitcoin is building up an increasingly prolonged bullish divergence, especially on a daily chart. The chart has formed another confirmed local divergence with the RSI and the price trajectory is forming a downward wedge.
Normally this would imply a bounce and a breakout at least to the top level of the pattern.
That said, I will keep an eye out for a likely formation of a hidden bearish divergence.
Bollinger Bands are quite narrow – a sign of “spring compression” before volatility intensifies.